Publication Library
JEL Applying End-to-End Neural Entity Linking in JPMorgan Chase
Description: Knowledge Graphs have emerged as a compelling abstraction for capturing key relationship among the entities of interest to enterprises and for integrating data from heterogeneous sources. JPMorgan Chase (JPMC) is leading this trend by leveraging knowledge graphs across the organization for multiple mission critical applications such as risk assessment, fraud detection, investment advice, etc. A core problem in leveraging a knowledge graph is to link mentions (e.g., company names) that are encountered in textual sources to entities in the knowledge graph. Although several techniques exist for entity linking, they are tuned for entities that exist in Wikipedia, and fail to generalize for the entities that are of interest to an enterprise. In this paper, we propose a novel end-to-end neural entity linking model (JEL) that uses minimal context information and a margin loss to generate entity embeddings, and a Wide & Deep Learning model to match character and semantic information respectively. We show that JEL achieves the state-of-the-art performance to link mentions of company names in financial news with entities in our knowledge graph. We report on our efforts to deploy this model in the company-wide system to generate alerts in response to financial news. The methodology used for JEL is directly applicable and usable by other enterprises who need entity linking solutions for data that are unique to their respective situations.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Dual Monte Carlo Tree Search
Description: AlphaZero, using a combination of Deep Neural Networks and Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS), arXiv:2103.11517v2 [cs.AI] 10 Oct 2021 has successfully trained reinforcement learning agents in a tabula-rasa way. The neural MCTS algorithm has been successful in finding nearoptimal strategies for games through self-play. However, the AlphaZero algorithm has a significant drawback; it takes a long time to converge and requires high computational power due to complex neural networks for solving games like Chess, Go, Shogi, etc. Owing to this, it is very difficult to pursue neural MCTS research without cutting-edge hardware, which is a roadblock for many aspiring neural MCTS researchers. In this paper, we propose a new neural MCTS algorithm, called Dual MCTS, which helps overcome these drawbacks. Dual MCTS uses two different search trees, a single deep neural network, and a new update technique for the search trees using a combination of the PUCB, a sliding-window, and the-greedy algorithm. This technique is applicable to any MCTS based algorithm to reduce the number of updates to the tree. We show that Dual MCTS performs better than one of the most widely used neural MCTS algorithms, AlphaZero, for various symmetric and asymmetric games.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Select and Trade Towards Unified Pair Trading with Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning
Description: Pair trading is one of the most effective statistical arbitrage strategies which seeks a neutral profit by hedging a pair of selected assets. Existing methods generally decompose the task into two separate steps: pair selection and trading. However, the decoupling of two closely related sub-tasks can block information propagation and lead to limited overall performance. For pair selection, ignoring the trading performance results in the wrong assets being selected with irrelevant price movements, while the agent trained for trading can overfit to the selected assets without any historical information of other assets. To address it, in this paper, we propose a paradigm for automatic pair trading as a unified task rather than a two-step pipeline. We design a hierarchical reinforcement learning framework to jointly learn and optimize two sub-tasks. A high-level policy would select two assets from all possible combinations and a low-level policy would then perform a series of trading actions. Experimental results on real-world stock data demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on pair trading compared with both existing pair selection and trading methods.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Mastering Pair Trading with Risk-Aware Recurrent Reinforcement Learning
Description: Although pair trading is the simplest hedging strategy for an investor to eliminate market risk, it is still a great challenge for reinforcement learning (RL) methods to perform pair trading as human expertise. It requires RL methods to make thousands of correct actions that nevertheless have no obvious relations to the overall trading profit, and to reason over infinite states of the time-varying market most of which have never appeared in history. However, existing RL methods ignore the temporal connections between asset price movements and the risk of the performed tradings. These lead to frequent tradings with high transaction costs and potential losses, which barely reach the human expertise level of trading. Therefore, we introduce CREDIT, a risk-aware agent capable of learning to exploit long-term trading opportunities in pair trading similar to a human expert. CREDIT is the first to apply bidirectional GRU along with the temporal attention mechanism to fully consider the temporal correlations embedded in the states, which allows CREDIT to capture long-term patterns of the price movements of two assets to earn higher profit. We also design the risk-aware reward inspired by the economic theory, that models both the profit and risk of the tradings during the trading period. It helps our agent to master pair trading with a robust trading preference that avoids risky trading with possible high returns and losses. Experiments show that it outperforms existing reinforcement learning methods in pair trading and achieves a significant profit over five years of U.S. stock data.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
The Wall Street Neophyte A Zero-Shot Analysis of ChatGPT Over MultiModal Stock Movement Prediction Challenges
Description: Recently, large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have demonstrated remarkable performance across a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, their effectiveness in the financial domain, specifically in predicting stock market movements, remains to be explored. In this paper, we conduct an extensive zero-shot analysis of ChatGPT’s capabilities in multimodal stock movement prediction, on three tweets and historical stock price datasets. Our findings indicate that ChatGPT is a "Wall Street Neophyte" with limited success in predicting stock movements, as it underperforms not only state-of-the-art methods but also traditional methods like linear regression using price features. Despite the potential of Chain-of-Thought prompting strategies and the inclusion of tweets, ChatGPT’s performance remains subpar. Furthermore, we observe limitations in its explainability and stability, suggesting the need for more specialized training or fine-tuning. This research provides insights into ChatGPT’s capabilities and serves as a foundation for future work aimed at improving financial market analysis and prediction by leveraging social media sentiment and historical stock data.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024