Publication Library
Using Sentiment and Technical Analysis to Predict Bitcoin with Machine Learning
Description: Cryptocurrencies have gained significant attention in recent years due to their decentralized nature and potential for financial innovation. Thus, the ability to accurately predict its price has become a subject of great interest for investors, traders, and researchers. Some works in the literature show how Bitcoin’s market sentiment correlates with its price fluctuations in the market. However, papers that consider the sentiment of the market associated with financial Technical Analysis indicators in order to predict Bitcoin’s price are still scarce. In this paper, we present a novel approach for predicting Bitcoin price movements by combining the Fear & Greedy Index, a measure of market sentiment, Technical Analysis indicators, and the potential of Machine Learning algorithms. This work represents a preliminary study on the importance of sentiment metrics in cryptocurrency forecasting. Our initial experiments demonstrate promising results considering investment returns, surpassing the Buy & Hold baseline, and offering valuable insights about the combination of indicators of sentiment and market in a cryptocurrency prediction model.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Inferring Option Movements Through Residual Transactions A Quantitative Model
Description: This research presents a novel approach to predicting option movements by analyzing "residual transactions," which are trades that deviate from standard hedging activities. Unlike traditional methods that primarily focus on open interest and trading volume, this study argues that residuals can reveal nuanced insights into institutional sentiment and strategic positioning. By examining these deviations, the model identifies early indicators of market trends, providing a refined framework for forecasting option prices. The proposed model integrates classical machine learning and regression techniques to analyze patterns in high-frequency trading data, capturing complex, non-linear relationships. This predictive framework allows traders to anticipate shifts in option values, enhancing strategies for better market timing, risk management, and portfolio optimization. The model’s adaptability, driven by real-time data processing, makes it particularly effective in fastpaced trading environments, where early detection of institutional behavior is crucial for gaining a competitive edge. Overall, this research contributes to the field of options trading by offering a strategic tool that detects early market signals, optimizing trading decisions based on predictive insights derived from residual trading patterns. This approach bridges the gap between conventional metrics and the subtle behaviors of institutional players, marking a significant advancement in options market analysis.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Extracting Alpha from Financial Analyst Networks
Description: We investigate the effectiveness of a momentum trading signal based on the coverage network of financial analysts. This signal builds on the key information-brokerage role financial sell-side analysts play in modern stock markets. The baskets of stocks covered by each analyst can be used to construct a network between f irms whose edge weights represent the number of analysts jointly covering both firms. Although the link between financial analysts coverage and co-movement of firms’ stock prices has been investigated in the literature, little effort has been made to systematically learn the most effective combination of signals from firms covered jointly by analysts in order to benefit from any spillover effect. To f ill this gap, we build a trading strategy which leverages the analyst coverage network using a graph attention network. More specifically, our model learns to aggregate information from individual f irm features and signals from neighbouring firms in a node-level forecasting task. We develop a portfolio based on those predictions which we demonstrate to exhibit an annualized returns of 29.44% and a Sharpe ratio of 4.06 substantially outperforming market baselines and existing graph machine learning based frameworks. We further investigate the performance and robustness of this strategy through extensive empirical analysis. Our paper represents one of the first attempts in using graph machine learning to extract actionable knowledge from the analyst coverage network for practical f inancial applications.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Survey on State-of-the-art Deep Learning Applications and Challenges
Description: Deep learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, is a data-driven method that uses multiple layers of interconnected units (neurons) to learn intricate patterns and representations directly from raw input data. Empowered by this learning capability, it has become a powerful tool for solving complex problems and is the core driver of many groundbreaking technologies and innovations. Building a deep learning model is challenging due to the algorithm’s complexity and the dynamic nature of real-world problems. Several studies have reviewed deep learning concepts and applications. However, the studies mostly focused on the types of deep learning models and convolutional neural network architectures, offering limited coverage of the state-of-the-art deep learning models and their applications in solving complex problems across different domains. Therefore, motivated by the limitations, this study aims to comprehensively review the state-of-the-art deep learning models in computer vision, natural language processing, time series analysis and pervasive computing. We highlight the key features of the models and their effectiveness in solving the problems within each domain. Furthermore, this study presents the fundamentals of deep learning, various deep learning model types and prominent convolutional neural network architectures. Finally, challenges and future directions in deep learning research are discussed to offer a broader perspective for future researchers. Keywords: Deep Learning, Fundamentals, State-of-the-art Applications, Challenges.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024
Real-World Evidence, Causal Inference, and Machine Learning
Description: The current focus on real world evidence (RWE) is occurring at a time when at least two major trends are converging. First, is the progress made in observational research design and methods over the past decade. Second, the development of numerous large observational healthcare databases around the world is creating repositories of improved data assets to support observational research. Objective: This paper examines the implications of the improvements in observational methods and research design, as well as the growing availability of real world data for the quality of RWE. These developments have been very positive. On the other hand, unstructured data, such as medical notes, and the sparcity of data created by merging multiple data assets are not easily handled by traditional health services research statistical methods. In response, machine learning methods are gaining increased traction as potential tools for analyzing massive, complex datasets. Conclusions: Machine learning methods have traditionally been used for classification and prediction, rather than causal inference. The prediction capabilities of machine learning are valuable by themselves. However, using machine learning for causal inference is still evolving. Machine learning can be used for hypothesis generation, followed by the application of traditional causal methods. But relatively recent developments, such as targeted maximum likelihood methods, are directly integrating machine learning with causal inference.
Created At: 14 December 2024
Updated At: 14 December 2024