Publication Library
Misalignments in AI Perception
Description: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming diverse societal domains, raising critical questions about its risks and benefits and the misalignments between public expectations and academic visions. This study examines how the general public (N=1110) -- people using or being affected by AI -- and academic AI experts (N=119) -- people shaping AI development -- perceive AI's capabilities and impact across 71 scenarios, including sustainability, healthcare, job performance, societal divides, art, and warfare. Participants evaluated each scenario on four dimensions: expected probability, perceived risk and benefit, and overall sentiment (or value). The findings reveal significant quantitative differences: experts anticipate higher probabilities, perceive lower risks, report greater utility, and express more favorable sentiment toward AI compared to the non-experts. Notably, risk-benefit tradeoffs differ: the public assigns risk half the weight of benefits, while experts assign it only a third. Visual maps of these evaluations highlight areas of convergence and divergence, identifying potential sources of public concern. These insights offer actionable guidance for researchers and policymakers to align AI development with societal values, fostering public trust and informed governance.
Created At: 03 December 2024
Updated At: 03 December 2024
Marc Andreessen - Joe Rogan Experience 2234
Description: Joe Rogan Experience #2234 - Marc Andreessen
Created At: 03 December 2024
Updated At: 03 December 2024
Collective decision making by embodied neural agents
Description: Collective decision making using simple social interactions has been studied in many types of multi-agent systems, including robot swarms and human social networks. However, existing multi-agent studies have rarely modeled the neural dynamics that underlie sensorimotor coordination in embodied biological agents. In this study, we investigated collective decisions that resulted from sensorimotor coordination among agents with simple neural dynamics. We equipped our agents with a model of minimal neural dynamics based on the coordination dynamics framework, and embedded them in an environment with a stimulus gradient. In our single-agent setup, the decision between two stimulus sources depends solely on the coordination of the agent's neural dynamics with its environment. In our multi-agent setup, that same decision also depends on the sensorimotor coordination between agents, via their simple social interactions. Our results show that the success of collective decisions depended on a balance of intra-agent, inter-agent, and agent-environment coupling, and we use these results to identify the influences of environmental factors on decision difficulty. More generally, our results demonstrate the impact of intra- and inter-brain coordination dynamics on collective behavior, can contribute to existing knowledge on the functional role of inter-agent synchrony, and are relevant to ongoing developments in neuro-AI and self-organized multi-agent systems.
Created At: 02 December 2024
Updated At: 02 December 2024
Leakage-Robust Bayesian Persuasion
Description: We introduce the concept of leakage-robust Bayesian persuasion. Situated between public persuasion [KG11, CCG23, Xu20] and private persuasion [AB19], leakage-robust persuasion considers a setting where one or more signals privately sent by a sender to the receivers may be leaked. We study the design of leakage-robust persuasion schemes and quantify the price of robustness using two formalisms: - The first notion, k-worst-case persuasiveness, requires a scheme to remain persuasive as long as each receiver observes at most k leaked signals. We quantify the Price of Worst-case Robustness (PoWRk) -- i.e., the gap in sender's utility as compared to the optimal private scheme -- as Θ(min{2k,n}) for supermodular sender utilities and Θ(k) for submodular or XOS utilities, where n is the number of receivers. This result also establishes that in some instances, Θ(logk) leakages are sufficient for the utility of the optimal leakage-robust persuasion to degenerate to that of public persuasion. - The second notion, expected downstream utility robustness, relaxes the persuasiveness and considers the impact on sender's utility when receivers best respond to their observations. By quantifying the Price of Downstream Robustness (PoDR) as the gap between the sender's expected utility over random leakage patterns as compared to private persuasion, we show that over several natural and structured distributions of leakage patterns, PoDR improves PoWR to Θ(k) or even Θ(1), where k is the maximum number of leaked signals observable to each receiver across leakage patterns in the distribution. En route to these results, we show that subsampling and masking are general-purpose algorithmic paradigms for transforming private persuasion signaling schemes to leakage-robust ones, with minmax optimal loss in the sender's utility.
Created At: 02 December 2024
Updated At: 02 December 2024
Leveraging Large Language Models for Institutional Portfolio Management Persona-Based Ensembles
Description: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated promising performance in various financial applications, though their potential in complex investment strategies remains underexplored. To address this gap, we investigate how LLMs can predict price movements in stock and bond portfolios using economic indicators, enabling portfolio adjustments akin to those employed by institutional investors. Additionally, we explore the impact of incorporating different personas within LLMs, using an ensemble approach to leverage their diverse predictions. Our findings show that LLM-based strategies, especially when combined with the mode ensemble, outperform the buy-and-hold strategy in terms of Sharpe ratio during periods of rising consumer price index (CPI). However, traditional strategies are more effective during declining CPI trends or sharp market downturns. These results suggest that while LLMs can enhance portfolio management, they may require complementary strategies to optimize performance across varying market conditions.
Created At: 02 December 2024
Updated At: 02 December 2024